Economics and similar, for the sleep-deprived

A subtle change has been made to the comments links, so they no longer pop up. Does this in any way help with the problem about comments not appearing on permalinked posts, readers?

Update: seemingly not

Update: Oh yeah!


Monday, December 10, 2012

 
The fragility of antifragility

Just reading through "Antifragile" now, and with rue my heart is laden at the mathematical and technical annexes.  It's a very similar sensation to the one I get when reading something in Welsh - I recognise this, it's a language I used to speak, but although I can pick up the general sense and even understand bits and pieces, the nuance and the ease is all gone.  And realistically, given constraints of time and brainpower, it ain't coming back.  All I can do is chew over the concept ...

And I'm having a few problems with it really.  I think it might not be workable - the original dispute between me and NNT was about dynamic modelling, and I think that antifragility as a strategy might have some nasty dynamic properties.  Consider ...

1) Presume that there is someone at your place of work who has become, somehow, antifragile.  They benefit from shocks and uncertainty.  How is that person going to act?

2) Well, they benefit from shocks and uncertainty.  So all of their incentives are to create more shocks, and to create uncertainty.

3) Doesn't that sound like kind of a pain in the ass?

4) Yes it does.  Specifically, I would guess that an antifragile person would be set up specifically to benefit from conflict and combat, and lots of other passages in "The Bed of Procrustes" and in "Antifragility" itself suggest to me that this is a correct interpretation of the concept.

5) So, I would guess, after a short while in the company of the antifragilist, I suspect I would be thinking of ways to do him a bad turn, and specifically to try and come up with a sufficiently large unanticipated shock to test whether he was really all that antifragile after all.  I think I would have quite a few allies in doing so.

6) And of course, antifragility can only ever be a local rather than global property; for any entity X, there is some shock that would destroy it totally, so anything that's antifragile is only ever antifragile over some bounded range of shocks.

7) Taleb, Nietzsche and similar thinkers tend to decry this tendency of the ordinary, conventional and mundane to drag down the truly extraordinary man, but actually it's very sensible and something like it is the basis of all civilised society, IMO.

I am only 9% through the book according to my Kindle, so maybe this is dealt with later or in the technical annex.  But I am not yet convinced that antifragility is an intrinsically valuable property of all and every system.  I think it's a strategy like any other - sometimes useful, sometimes useless, sometimes actively self destructive.
8 comments this item posted by the management 12/10/2012 01:16:00 PM


This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?




Links:

Bitch : Lab
Aaronovitch Watch
Balkanalysis
Perfect.co.uk
Maxspeak
Brad Delong
The Robert Vienneau blog

Political and philosophical heroes

Subcomandante Marcos
Will Rogers
Boris Vian
The English Svejk

RSS Feed:
This seems to matter to a lot of people

If you liked this "Daniel Davies" website, you might be interested in

"Danux", the web developer
The martial artist (and fan of extremely annoying Flash intros) from Blackburn
The Welsh political journalist
A Scouse computer programmer who collects Soviet cameras
"Danimal", the heavy metal drummer
Canada's finest recorder of radio jingles
More of the same, at the Guardian
A tailor's in Lampeter where Jimmy Carter once bought a hat
An advertising man who has written a novel about dogging (I think we sometimes get each other's email)
An award-winning facilities manager in Dubai
The son of the guitarist from the Kinks Update: he is apparently "balls-out motherfucking shit-dicked exxxstatic" to be included on a Kerrang magazine giveaway CD of Iron Maiden covers, which is nice.
"Fritz Gretel" from the Ramones film "Rock 'n' Roll High School"
The former presenter of the leading politics talk radio show on the Isle of Man, now a business change manager in the Manx government secretary's office
An aquarium curator in Sussex who keeps on scoring home runs like this (this is the first stable link I've found, but he is constantly kicking ass in acquarial terms)

If you didn't like this "Daniel Davies" website, then don't give up on the Daniel Davies industry completely!

An American "Christian Political Analyst" who has the same name as me
A student at Patrick Henry College
these two might be the same guy ...
"Scatter", the deceased Liberian gangster
A naked man stuck in a chimney in Wigan
A thug in Barrow



This blog has been going downhill since ...

August 2002
September 2002
October 2002
November 2002
December 2002
January 2003
February 2003
March 2003
April 2003
May 2003
June 2003
July 2003
August 2003
September 2003
November 2003
December 2003
March 2004
April 2004
May 2004
May 2005
June 2005
July 2005
August 2005
September 2005
October 2005
November 2005
December 2005
January 2006
February 2006
March 2006
April 2006
May 2006
June 2006
July 2006
August 2006
September 2006
October 2006
November 2006
December 2006
January 2007
February 2007
March 2007
April 2007
May 2007
June 2007
July 2007
August 2007
September 2007
October 2007
November 2007
December 2007
January 2008
February 2008
March 2008
April 2008
May 2008
June 2008
July 2008
August 2008
September 2008
October 2008
November 2008
December 2008
January 2009
February 2009
March 2009
April 2009
May 2009
June 2009
July 2009
August 2009
September 2009
October 2009
November 2009
December 2009
January 2010
February 2010
March 2010
April 2010
May 2010
June 2010
July 2010
August 2010
September 2010
October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011
March 2011
April 2011
May 2011
June 2011
July 2011
August 2011
September 2011
October 2011
November 2011
December 2011
January 2012
February 2012
March 2012
April 2012
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
August 2012
September 2012
October 2012
December 2012
February 2013
April 2013
June 2013
July 2013
August 2013
March 2014
April 2014
August 2014
October 2015
March 2023