Economics and similar, for the sleep-deprived
A subtle change has been made to the comments links, so they no longer pop up. Does this in any way help with the problem about comments not appearing on permalinked posts, readers?
Update: seemingly not
Update: Oh yeah!
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
The thing about silent masses is, they're awfully silent
Looking a bit brighter for that BNP election prediction that had me worried a few months ago. The polls are coming in, and BNP support is basically slap bang where it was in 2004 - about 4% in online polling and about 2% when people actually have to identify themselves face to face as a BNP supporter.
People seem to have a lot invested in the belief that polls underestimate the "true" support of the BNP. Last time round, they were polling 4% before the elections, but when the hidden masses were able to show their true feelings in the secrecy of the polling cubicle, their support soared to 5%. See comments on the first link above for a clear explanation of why the unwind of UKIP's 2004 spike in support doesn't really benefit the BNP - the class basis of the two parties is totally different, and while the 09-vintage BNP might arguably be a bit more coherent and better organised than 2004, the difference between Michael Howard's Tories and David Cameron's is night and day; the UKIP vote basically returns to its natural home in the Conservative Party.
Maybe I'm wrong or maybe I'm right on this one, but the data really isn't supporting the view that I'm wrong.
this item posted by the management 5/13/2009 05:23:00 AM