Thursday, September 19, 2002

Bubba the Dread

I'd like to rephrase my argument in favour of war in Iraq (that it is the only politically possible way of ending the horrendously cruel blockade of Iraq) in terms which won't convince anybody any more, but which might hopefully spoil the dinner of most of the other members of the pro-war camp.

The main argument of the warbloggers at the moment is that inspections won't work, can't work, can't be made to work. Because there are a million and one things that Saddam Hussein could do to foil, harry or impede the work of the inspectors, there is no way in which we can countenance taking seriously Iraq's offer to allow "unconditional" inspections. The only thing we can possibly do is invade, and there's an end on't.

Fair enough. But note that this argument could have been made at any time in the last ten years. So it does rather raise the following question:

If we really think that there is no possible inspection regime which would be any use at all, why the fuck have we been starving people to death for ten years in the pretence that there is????

Corollaries:

1) As Jude Wanniski regularly points out, the answer to the question, frequently asked over the last ten years "Why doesn't that evil megalomanic just let the inspectors back in if he cares about his people so much?" is almost certainly "Because he knew that some lugnut like you would make exactly the argument you've just made now that he has offered to let them back in".

2) Starting from this premise, it is not easy to avoid the conclusion that the policy of the United States of America over the last ten years has not been to get inspectors back in, but rather to attempt to starve the Iraqi people into revolution against Hussein. Starvation, in my opinion, ought to be classed as a weapon of mass destruction.

3) It further degrades the already debased currency of UN resolutions that they have been, in this case, clearly used in an entirely disingenuous manner.

Of course, this isn't Bush-bashing. Although the "inspections, schminspections" wing of the warblogger community are probably guilty of pretty serious bad faith (it's not possible to both hold the view that no inspection regime is satisfactory and maintain that the deaths from malnutrition and want of medical treatment which I call "starvation" for polemic purposes above were the fault of Saddam Hussein rather than the fault of the USA acting through the UN), bad faith is a much lesser crime than mass murder, and at least, in a sort of bumbling and insanely worrying way, Bush is holding out some hope for the end of the suffering. Nope, the policy of maintaining the death-grip of the blockade in bad faith, in the face of copious information about its murderous nature, and in the hope that it would eventually result in "regime change" without a fight, was the work for the most part of William Jefferson Clinton. Would it not be better for the soul of the Left to admit that the policy of starvation took place for the most part during the Clinton years and represents the logical outcome of the "triangulation" strategy (neither invasion nor accomodation, but rather a "third way") which marked out most of what Clinton did?

I fundamentally like Bill Clinton. That's why I'm right there on his side on most issues; whatever he does, he isn't an arsehole about it. And most of his opponents are such horrendous arseholes that one's every instinct cries out to support him. But after thinking through the argument above, I find it very hard to look at pictures of his big red old face without getting the same mental picture of heaps of emaciated bodies which always lingers as a retinal ghost image in the portraits of all the worst villains of the twentieth century.

edit: Forestalling the argument that "the reason people are starving in Iraq is that Saddam does this, that, the other instead of spending the money on food". It isn't so. Under the terms of the blockade, Iraq sells around $4bn of oil a year. The UN keeps 40% of this for its expenses and for reparations, leaving $2.6bn. That leaves around 36 cents per Iraqi per day, which is nowhere near enough to live on. And Iraq has next to no other exports but oil, and agriculture is pretty difficult to establish when you aren't allowed to buy fertiliser because it might be used as chemical weapons precursors. Furthermore, any argument based on how much money Iraq spends on its army overlooks the tiny technicality that every nation tends to increase military expenditure when they are under immediate threat of bloody war!. There is simply no way off the moral hook by twisting the facts in this manner.

other edit: Just realised that, of course, all references to "USA" should be "USA and UK" above, but can't be bothered to change them individually. I'm part of the collective guilt on this one too. The French, bless 'em, aren't.

1 comment:

  1. (?xml version="1.0" ?)
    (data)
    (comments)
    (thread id="81830450")
    (comment)
    (datetime)Thursday 2002-09-19 19:15:17(/datetime)
    (name)b(/name)
    (email)brennan[.]peterson[at]stanford[.]edu(/email)
    (uri)(/uri)

    I think the point youy make here is quite good--but I think you are overstating the power of the president. Second, I think there is some responsibility to offer a useful alternative policy, when using hindsight to criticize a prior policy.

    Like you, I fundamentally liked Clinton. He was and is a brilliant, charismatic man. His actions, were, though circumscribed by both his ideology and the political reality of the time. For idealism, Clinton seemed to be groping toward a theory of international affairs that treated other nations with the same respect that we have found best in interpersonal relations. For very good reasons, we don't live our lives, in the western world anyway, live with the calculated cruelty that nations seem to practice. Clinton attempted to maintain the pleasant fiction of international diplomacy and democracy.

    The life of the kurds in the north and shias in the south further limited the options. Their lives stood a very good chance of becoming materially worse if the nation were reintegrated. Likewise, the most sensible option--the creation of a shia state in the south and a kudish state in the north were seen as impossible (I think this was wrong--turkey would have been angered, but not fatally so).

    The events is Somalia proved that the American people were not at all willing ot involve themselves, at that time, in the world in any positive way, at the cost of lives. Very, very few died, in real terms, yet the political ramifications were massive. The people did not support any sort of humanitarian war, and humanitarian action in general.

    The global reputaion of the US was at stake, so no relaxation against hussein was possible. What results is a policy of paralasis. Between a host of bad options, policy was paralysed. The time to act was the end of the gulf war (which in AMerican, very few understood--why fight a war and stop half way?) I wonder at times if a large part of peoples frustration with Bush was that he didn't really win the war.

    So what would the best answer have been? I would guess that a series of strikes against hussein, directly, carried out from the air repeatedly, was the only policy that could create the conditions for a rebellion. The creation of a shia state in the south, and a kurdish state in the south would have been smoothed over, requiring tremendous help with Europe. Given the fragility of turkey at the time, this is risky, but, I think, the best of a series of bad options.

    Or perhaps I am yet another clinton apologist....

    Anywat, thanks for a good page and interesting topic.

    B(/text)

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    (comment)
    (datetime)Thursday 2002-09-19 21:13:58(/datetime)
    (name)dsquared(/name)
    (email)(/email)
    (uri)(/uri)

    I certainly agree, and will perhaps at some point post a disclaimer to the effect that, despite any implications I make to the contrary, accusations of iniquity made on this weblog are never meant to carry the implication that anything else could or should have been done ...(/text)

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    (comment)
    (datetime)Thursday 2002-09-19 22:41:36(/datetime)
    (name)b(/name)
    (email)brennan[[.]]peterson[at]stanford[[.]]edu(/email)
    (uri)(/uri)

    I wouldn't go that far. Qutie often, people are stupid and make bad decisions, and it is worth pointing them out. This particular time, there wasn't much else to be done, at least easily. That doesn't excuse the fact that it wasn't done or ever properly discussed. That can and should be blamed on WJC.

    For all his positives, political courage is not one of his particular strong points.

    B(/text)

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    (comment)
    (datetime)Friday 2002-09-20 00:05:33(/datetime)
    (name)Euge(/name)
    (email)euge[at]uberbin[.]net(/email)
    (uri)http://uberbin.net/elsurexiste(/uri)

    You are so right. Since you don't have any contact e-mail for "fanmail", I'll say it here: your blog is absolutely brilliant. :)(/text)

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    (comment)
    (datetime)Friday 2002-09-20 17:46:25(/datetime)
    (name)RonK, Seattle(/name)
    (email)(/email)
    (uri)http://cogenteur.blogspot.com(/uri)

    Great blog! Pls educate me vs
    http://www.fas.org/news/iraq/1998/04/980400_ds.htm
    indicating programmatic oil exports and food imports on par with pre-war levels. (Harder to account for diversions within the program and "cheating" around the program, of course.) Is reduced agricultural yield the whole ball game? How do we know? etc.(/text)

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    (comment)
    (datetime)Friday 2002-09-20 23:06:22(/datetime)
    (name)dsquared(/name)
    (email)(/email)
    (uri)(/uri)

    on a general point, if anyone's looking for education here, they're looking in the wrong place; I do facetious and semi-informed comment.

    but seriously, that's a hell of an interesting link, Ron, and I think that another proper post will be in order to respond to it.

    Quite apart from anything, I should have suspected that there was something up with that "36 cents a day" factoid, because it implies that the famine conditions in Iraq are caused by a shortage of food. Since one of the few things we've learned from economics since the war is Amartya Sen's result that famines are in general catastrophes of the distribution system rather than the production system, the idea that the sanctions caused the famine in such a simple way was always suspect .... more to come, but it's Friday night over here.(/text)

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    (comment)
    (datetime)Tuesday 2002-09-24 21:03:09(/datetime)
    (name)Brad DeLong(/name)
    (email)delong[at]econ[.]berkeley[.]edu(/email)
    (uri)(/uri)

    The $4 billion a year limit was imposed by the 1996 UN resolution establishing the oil-for-food program. It was more than doubled in 1998 and abolished in 1999. IIRC, in 1998 Iraq exported $5.11 billion worth of oil, in 1999 $11.35 billion, in 2000 $17.87 billion, and in 2001 $10.99 billion--all compared to oil exports in the old days that averaged some $16 billion a year over 1986-1990.

    None of this, however, should be taken to indicate that I approve of economic sanctions against Iraq. Economic sanctions are a very good way to raise mortality and create suffering among the toiling masses while having little if any effect on the standards of living and styles of life of the elite.(/text)

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    (comment)
    (datetime)Wednesday 2002-09-25 17:24:16(/datetime)
    (name)RonK, Seattle(/name)
    (email)(/email)
    (uri)http://cogenteur.blogspot.com(/uri)

    Thanks, Brad, and I tend to agree, but I'm at pains to recover/recycle principled arguments from rhetorical landfill, and on this point both sides serve up tossed salads of noncommensurable factoids.

    Re baseline comparisons, didn't Saudi Arabia experience roughly comparable swings in oil revenue -- without benefit of sanctions?(/text)

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    (comment)
    (datetime)Thursday 2002-09-26 18:59:44(/datetime)
    (name)gp(/name)
    (email)gpoladian[at]yahoo[.]com(/email)
    (uri)(/uri)

    Wanniski is a clever guy. But his political analysis is very... I don't know what. Much of his political thought is built on top of his electorate theory which is really poor. I really like the guy, but I and friends have been wrestling with this and we just can't believe it nor do we see any evidence it models the world well. But I think Gilder's theory of the electorate is much better as outlined in Wealth and Poverty.(/text)

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