They call them "Deathers", apparently
That is to say, silly conspiracy theorists who don't believe that Osama bin Laden is dead. But what's the suitable pejorative for people who believe that ObL is dead, but did not die in the Abbottabad raid? For example, if someone found himself being drawn toward the following theory:
1) That ObL was living in a house that looked rather more like a prison than a mansion; specifically, that it rather looked as if he were being treated in the way in which medieval warlords used to extend hospitality to high-value captives.
2) That if I were a high-ranking "rogue element" in the ISI (NB: the ISI has "rogue elements" like the Sorbonne has "French elements"), I might certainly hang on to Osama bin Laden without any particular plan as to what to do with him, pending a bigger prize than the $25m reward or pending my acquisition of a convincing explanation of how I got him.
3) That if on the other hand, my high value captive were to die on me of kidney failure, there would be little to do except get on the telephone and offer the USA first refusal on the body; if on the other hand I was the USA I might very definitely be tempted to save a bit of national pride with a bit of security theatre.
4) And if I were a US intelligence organisation doing something of the sort, I would make damn certain to a) rub out anyone who might at a later date want to gainsay myself and my co-conspirators, and b) get rid of the body pronto tonto, saving only a small and indubitably genuine sample of tissue (taken elsewhere than the kidneys) for indisputable verification purposes.
I offer this conspiracy theory as open source, for the community.
It may just be my fatigue, but your closing line makes me think of the plot of Eco's "Foucault's Pendulum"...
ReplyDeleteIts weak, though, as his family members mostly survived and are out there giving interviews. You need to address why they were allowed to survive for it to have legs.
ReplyDeleteI think there also has to be a 6' 6" Osama-alike to actually get shot and laid out next to a 6' SEAL - in which case, why? Unless, when they stormed the place, they found Osama sitting really still... He certainly wouldn't have responded to requests to put his hands up, throw down his pistol, move away from the AK-47, look at me when I'm talking to you, etc, which they might find quite menacing. (This is a scene for Joe Orton.)
ReplyDeleteI think there also has to be a 6' 6" Osama-alike to actually get shot and laid out next to a 6' SEAL
ReplyDeleteNo, the dead body serves for all that (particularly if you're not planning on making the photos public), as long as the SEALs don't blab, which is not much of a risk as "not blabbing about slightly disreputable things you are asked to do" is a pretty key part of special forces training and selection.
his family members mostly survived and are out there giving interviews
ReplyDeleteEight of the survivors are children, and so can be safely left; maybe the two wives were unaware that he'd died - I would guess that the start-to-finish organisation time would have had to be quick.
Nancy's point is stronger than that. They are indeed giving media interviews and at least one seems to have been present at the shooting. And you're not so much reaching as flailing and overbalancing.
ReplyDeleteFurther, as the ISI, wouldn't you make sure to stage the whole thing way out in South Waziristan, confirming he was where he was meant to be and not in your power, and making sure that there are at least fewer witnesses than in the middle of Abbottabad? You could dump the body and then call in a drone.
This would nicely save the whole expensive and risky business with helicopters and SEALs and whatnot. Drones don't talk, after all, except for that one on Twitter.
This would nicely save the whole expensive and risky business with helicopters and SEALs and whatnot
ReplyDeleteExpensive but well worth it in terms of publicity and feelgood factor; also in my scenario he actually was living in Abbottbad right up until his death, so there are fewer details to fake and so less risk (getting the body out to Waziristan under cover of secrecy would be a real pain in the ass).
Where are these interviews? I'm searching and not finding.
There was an interview given to Al-Jazeera shortly after the raid by either the daughter, or the wife. Both have since given other interviews. One of these interviews seems to have been responsible for one of the rapid changes in the story (she flatly contradicted him being armed, or using her as a shield).
ReplyDeleteIt's funny that you mention the 'deathers' because I also blogged about this... after reading KGS Nightwatch on the matter:
ReplyDeletehttp://mindtaker.blogspot.com/2011/05/special-comment-on-osama-bin-laden.html
Even the mil analysts are scratching their heads over the handing of this matter.
-Drunken Economist
http://mindtaker.blogspot.com/
http://twitter.com/drunk_economist
Not bad, but if you're the government of Pakistan, then don't you now have the mother of all face-saving stories sitting in your lap, provided you're willing to throw one* rogue ISI officer under the proverbial bus?
ReplyDeleteOf course, your get-out-of-international-humiliation card is entirely contingent on those wifes never saying strange things to the press that don't fit the story. But then, you (the government of Pakistan) presumably got this story from interrogating the wifes to begin with, so you're all good there, right?
* If the particular rogue ISI officer responsible has something on you, then you just pick a more convenient one, yes?
I think the phrase Premature Anti-Fascist could be adapted.
ReplyDeletePerhaps Wrongful Deather
or Truthful Deather
(Grateful Deather ?)