The thing about silent masses is, they're awfully silent
Looking a bit brighter for that BNP election prediction that had me worried a few months ago. The polls are coming in, and BNP support is basically slap bang where it was in 2004 - about 4% in online polling and about 2% when people actually have to identify themselves face to face as a BNP supporter.
People seem to have a lot invested in the belief that polls underestimate the "true" support of the BNP. Last time round, they were polling 4% before the elections, but when the hidden masses were able to show their true feelings in the secrecy of the polling cubicle, their support soared to 5%. See comments on the first link above for a clear explanation of why the unwind of UKIP's 2004 spike in support doesn't really benefit the BNP - the class basis of the two parties is totally different, and while the 09-vintage BNP might arguably be a bit more coherent and better organised than 2004, the difference between Michael Howard's Tories and David Cameron's is night and day; the UKIP vote basically returns to its natural home in the Conservative Party.
Maybe I'm wrong or maybe I'm right on this one, but the data really isn't supporting the view that I'm wrong.
Take a look at http://www.predict09.eu/default/en-us/state_analyses.aspx#united
ReplyDeleteLSE's predicting lower votes for BNP in this election.
Shame about the Greens though.
My gut feeling is that you're just going to have a shocking turnout, and the BNP won't get a thing out of it.
ReplyDeleteComes back to a conversation with my dad re: the colossal fuckup over the Gurkhas, which had him saying in Mailesque fashion "why keep them out and allow in Romanian burglars?" I said, jokingly, that even the BNP probably supported the Gurkhas, and certain BNPers were all pro-Gurkha last year, saying that they epitomised Britishness. But you have Griffin calling them mercenaries this week on 5 Live. Oops.
So, that little flap challenges my dad's grumpy threatened flirtation with the BNP. (He's in his sixties, of the left, doesn't like swarthy foreigners, but surprisingly complimentary about Polish carpenters because they know their stuff and have a good work ethic.) He's staying at home.
certain BNPers were all pro-Gurkha last year, saying that they epitomised Britishness. But you have Griffin calling them mercenaries this week on 5 Live. Oops.He did? Gosh. The man has no brain - none.
ReplyDeletewildly OT (apologies): a friend of mine just discovered "nassim nicholas taleb" is an anagram of “chaos salesman bin-lit”
ReplyDeletei felt this was a valuable datapoint in D^D's war
I wasn't expecting that!
ReplyDeleteI for one would think much more kindly of Taleb if he had titled his book "The Spanish Inquisition".
ReplyDelete